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Prediction for CME (2023-07-04T04:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-04T04:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25808/-1
CME Note: Complex partial halo CME comprised of multiple embedded fronts seen mostly south in SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs but brightest in STEREO A COR2. The CME appears to contain a wide bulk and a very wide faint shock present in the northeast. Likely associated with an eruption near the vicinity of AR3359 (S22E24) seen best as a spray in SDO 193/171 starting shortly before 03:00Z as well as large-scale brightening in SDO 304 seen near 04:00Z. A broad area of large-scale post-eruptive arcades are seen back towards the northeast after the eruption, particularly in SDO 193. Data gaps due to a STEREO A campaign limits analysis of this event. No clear CME arrivals on July 6-8.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-07T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: T2023-07-04 11:57
Radial velocity (km/s): 505
Longitude (deg): -26
Latitude (deg): -19
Half-angular width (deg): 52

Notes: To be honest I became a herd forecast animal with this event. I initially viewed the on disk activity and subsequent CME as a mis-match (CME perhaps to big for small localised plasma motion). I reviewed GONG H-alpha imagery and unfortunately GONG Learmonth stopped just before at 04/0333UT. I looked back over GONG images 02-Jul to 04-Jul and I could not identify a missing solar filament. This lowered confidence. I wanted to confirm that something had left the Sun. The expansion back around over the Sun Earth line swayed me to presume its front side and hence my forecast of G1, chance G2 for 07-Jul. Where did the plasma come from?

Lead Time: 54.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-07-05T00:07Z

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